Typhoon Bolaven is advancing north… There has been no ‘October typhoon’ since 1977, and the path is

A typhoon with the same name as Typhoon Bolaven, which tore through the Korean Peninsula in 2012, is heading north in the sea near Guam.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration on the 8th, Typhoon Bolaven, the 15th typhoon of 2023, occurred in the waters southeast of Guam on the 7th and is increasing in strength. On the 12th, the intensity evolved to ‘very strong’ and is expected to pass the sea about 960km north of Guam at 9 a.m. on the 13th. The ‘very strong’ typhoon has a maximum wind speed near the center of 44 meters per second (159.4 kilometers per hour), which is strong enough to fly a person.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration’s typhoon forecast (forecast for the next 5 days), Bolaven is expected to rise toward the sea southeast of Tokyo, Japan on the 13th. Meteorological authorities believe that the likelihood of it affecting the Korean Peninsula in the future is still low. Supercomputers in major countries, including the European Office for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF ) , the world’s most authoritative forecast model, predicted that Bolaven would turn to the right and advance northeast over the South Sea of ​​Japan. The forecast model is not an official forecast from each country’s meteorological authorities, but rather an analysis data that changes every day depending on weather conditions. The Korea Meteorological Administration makes a five-day typhoon forecast by combining supercomputer analysis results from major countries such as Korea and Europe and other data.

Typically, October typhoons had little effect on the Korean Peninsula. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, no October typhoon has made landfall in Korea since 1977. Of the 72 typhoons that occurred in October over the past 20 years, only two typhoons (Danas in 2013 and Bongpong in 2014) affected Korea.

The problem is that this year’s Pacific sea surface temperature is at an메이저사이트 all-time high, and climate change is progressing rapidly. As the summer heat continues into September, some analysts say that the power of fall typhoons (typhoons that occur between September and October) and the impact of fall typhoons on the Korean Peninsula are increasing.

Moon Il-joo, director of Jeju National University’s Typhoon Research Center, announced in a recent paper published in Nature that, as a result of analyzing records from 1980 to 2000, summer typhoons were weakening and fall typhoons were becoming stronger on the Korean Peninsula. As temperatures rise in September, the North Pacific high pressure located southeast of the Korean Peninsula appears to be less able to escape Northeast Asia as before, creating favorable conditions for typhoons to advance closer to the Korean Peninsula. Previously, as the North Pacific high pressure receded, fall typhoons often escaped east of Japan along the edge of this high pressure.

The path of a typhoon is most influenced by the North Pacific high pressure. Typhoon ‘Kanun’, which passed through South Korea last August, was initially not expected to affect the Korean Peninsula, but as the North Pacific high pressure over Japan expanded, it headed toward the Korean Peninsula along the edge of the high pressure.

Northwestern winds blowing on the Korean Peninsula, possibility of Bolaven impact ↓However, under the current situation, the likelihood of Typhoon No. 15 Bolaven affecting the Korean Peninsula appears to be extremely low. Professor Moon Il-ju explained, “The likelihood of fall typhoons approaching the Korean Peninsula has increased overall, but the Korean Peninsula is currently under the influence of cold continental high pressure, so the likelihood of Bolaven coming near the Korean Peninsula is very low.” Some predict that Bolaven’s future path will vary depending on the changes in the power of the high pressure that dominates the Korean Peninsula.

Typhoon Bolaven, which struck the Korean Peninsula in late August 2012, caused 25 deaths or disappearances in South Korea alone and hundreds of casualties in North Korea.

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